Flawed Thinking Runs Rampant In The Wireless World

Flawed Thinking Runs Rampant In The Wireless World
I’ve got 3 different instances of seriously maligned thot processes, each of which opens up tremendous potential for others trying to grab market share (such as our Lightyear Wireless).

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From Apple:
http://www.channelpartnersonline.com/news/2011/05/iphone-5-deal-with-t-mobile-sprint-pending-report.aspx

iPhone 5 Deal with T-Mobile, Sprint Pending – Report
May 16, 2011
By Craig Galbraith

“Despite what seems like a new Android phone being released every day, the iPhone has maintained its market share in recent quarters.  Android-based devices have overtaken the iPhone for market-share lead, but that’s many devices vs. just one.”

Why is this flawed thinking?  Because while Apple “has maintained its market share,” Android is passing up other, less competitive players like Nokia and RIM, and as they do, they’re increasing their market share while Apple “maintains.”  Plus, the multiple devices situation is no different than the one Apple faced with microsoft in the desktop computer war, one that Apple ended up losing badly.  So they’re repeating the same mistake and this is a good thing?  Why isn’t this obvious to everyone, when we have a recent, nearly identical situation to compare?

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From Verizon:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/19/us-summit-verizon-idUSTRE74I4NH20110519

Verizon eyes family data plans
By Sinead Carew
NEW YORK | Thu May 19, 2011 6:38pm EDT

“Until now Verizon’s prepaid services have been uncompetitive with more specialist rivals and have made the biggest in-roads in the market by renting network space to prepaid provider Tracfone, a unit of America Movil (AMXL.MX).

“The company has yet to decide if it will expand nationwide with a $50 per month prepaid plan it is testing in Florida and elsewhere, according to Shammo.  He said Verizon would do what it needs to do in prepaid.

“We’ve always said we’re a postpaid company,” he said.  “That doesn’t mean that prepaid is not important to us.“

Hey – please STAY a postpaid company!  That’s music to my ears.  The fact that Verizon is sitting out the prepaid stampede is the best thing competitors could ask for.  It’s an AMAZING admission on Verizon’s part (that they’re “a postpaid company”), but there it is, in writing.  BTW, Verizon is definitely NOT doing “what it needs to do in prepaid.”

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From “Truly Unlimited” T-Mobile:
http://www.channelpartnersonline.com/news/2011/05/t-mobile-usa-loses-nearly-100-000-subscribers.aspx

T-Mobile USA Loses Nearly 100,000 Subscribers
May 6, 2011

“Although T-Mobile USA reported 372,000 prepaid additions, the company lost 471,000 customers on contract, triple the number in the period a year ago (118,000).  T-Mobile has lost 789,000 customers on contract over the last two quarters.

“Contract churn improved sequentially to 2.4 percent from 2.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010, but customer turnover was significantly higher than in the period a year ago (2.2 percent).

“‘The year-on-year increase in contract churn was driven by continued competitive pressures in the US wireless industry,’ T-Mobile USA said.”

If you’re watching even just 5 minutes of the NBA playoffs, you can’t avoid the T-Mobile commercials, which repeat multiple lies over and over.  “Truly Unlimited” limited service, on a “4G” 3G network:  both of those lies are made in every commercial and ad they run.  Anyone who’s paying attention can quickly see T-Mobile is not telling the truth.  So it is a wonder that they’re bleeding customers and being gobbled up by another truth twister?

The article “The problem with T-Mobile 4G? It’s not 4G” says:

“Aside from the open field in front of WiMAX and LTE to grow faster and faster iterations, there’s also the matter of their open field of spectrum.  AT&T’s (and T-Mobile’s) primary connectivity issues are caused not with the speed of the network but the clutter — there are a lot of people using all 3G phones and devices in thickly populated metro areas such as New York and San Francisco in the carriers’ respective slices of the 800 MHz and 1.9 GHz bands.  To paraphrase Yogi:  It’s so crowded no one can go there anymore.  And don’t think Verizon won’t suffer the same not-enough-room-to-swing-a-cat spectrum traffic jam once everyone rushes to get its iPhones early next year.

“Unlike HSPA+, both WiMAX and LTE operate in sparkling clean spectrum uncluttered by any other radio traffic.  Verizon’s LTE users will rattle around unfettered — at least for a few years — in 22 MHz of spectrum in the 700 MHz band once occupied by local analog TV service.  Sprint has a veritable castle of spectrum for WiMAX, a massive 120-150 MHz in the 2.5-2.7 GHz bands.”

JC